Gold & Silver Weekly Watchouts: Fed, GDP, PCE, COEMX Deliveries & Iran War | July 27–August 2, 2026)
- International Stacker
- Jul 26
- 14 min read
Every Sunday, I publish the International Stacker Gold & Silver Weekly Watchouts to help the Crustacean Nation prepare for the biggest events that could affect gold, silver, mining stocks, treasury yields, the US dollar, and the broader financial markets.
This could be one of the most volatile weeks of the summer!
The Federal Reserve meets July 28–29. Less than 19 hours after Wednesday’s FOMC decision and Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference, markets will receive the first estimate of second-quarter US GDP and the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge: the PCE Price Index.
Friday then brings an important wage-inflation report, COMEX gold delivery activity, and updated gold and silver futures positioning.
But scheduled economic reports are only part of the story. The US-Iran war remains the largest wildcard facing precious metals. One missile strike, tanker attack, ceasefire announcement, shipping disruption, or major change involving the Strait of Hormuz could overpower the entire economic calendar within minutes.
*Please remember I'm not a financial advisor & this is not financial advice!
🔥 Quick Summary – My Biggest Watchouts This Week
🏭Durable Goods Orders — Monday
📈Treasury Auctions and Bond-Market Demand — Monday through Wednesday
👥Consumer Confidence and Richmond Fed Manufacturing — Tuesday
🥇Federal Reserve Rate Decision — Wednesday at 2:00 p.m. ET
🎤Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference — Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET
📊Q2 GDP, PCE Inflation and Core PCE — Thursday at 8:30 a.m. ET
🥇August COMEX Gold First Notice Day — Friday
💵Employment Cost Index — Friday
📊CFTC Gold and Silver Positioning — Friday
🏭 China Manufacturing and Physical Demand — Late week
🌎Iran War and Strait of Hormuz Developments — All week
Why This Week Matters for Gold & Silver
This week could set the tone for precious metals well into August. The Federal Reserve will announce its latest interest-rate decision on Wednesday, followed less than 19 hours later by the first estimate of Q2 US GDP and the Fed's preferred inflation gauge, the PCE Price Index. Together, these reports could significantly reshape expectations for future interest-rate policy, Treasury yields, real yields, and the US dollar—all of which are major drivers of gold and silver prices.
At the same time, the US-Iran war remains the biggest wildcard. A major military escalation, tanker attack, ceasefire announcement, or disruption to the Strait of Hormuz could quickly override the economic calendar by moving oil prices, inflation expectations, safe-haven demand, and bond yields.
For stackers, this is a week to watch not just the headlines, but how the market reacts. The direction of real yields, the US dollar, and geopolitical developments may matter even more than the economic data itself.
🚨 My Biggest Concern This Week
The biggest risk this week is not found on the economic calendar, it is the US-Iran war. The Fed, GDP, inflation, employment costs, Treasury auctions, and COMEX deliveries could all move gold and silver. But one major development involving Iran, oil infrastructure, commercial shipping, Gulf military bases, Saudi Arabia, or the Strait of Hormuz could instantly override every scheduled report.
A softer inflation report could initially push yields lower and send metals higher. Hours later, a tanker attack or major strike could send oil, inflation expectations, Treasury yields, and the dollar sharply higher—completely reversing the move.
The opposite is also possible. A credible ceasefire or diplomatic breakthrough could reduce immediate safe-haven demand while lowering oil prices, yields, and the US dollar. That is why this week cannot be analyzed through the economic calendar alone. The most important question is not simply whether the war escalates or de-escalates. It is:
How do oil, real yields, the US dollar, and safe-haven demand react?
That combination will likely determine the immediate move in gold and silver.
This Week’s Key Events
Monday, July 27
Durable Goods Orders — 8:30 a.m. ET: The US Census Bureau will release its advance report on June durable-goods orders.
Durable-goods data provide insight into manufacturing, business investment, defense spending, and demand for major equipment.
I will focus on:
Orders excluding transportation
Core capital-goods orders
Machinery and electrical-equipment demand
Defense orders
Unfilled orders
A weak report could raise slowdown concerns, lower Treasury yields, and support gold. A strong report could push yields and the US dollar higher, creating short-term pressure on precious metals. For silver, stronger capital-goods and electrical-equipment demand would support the industrial outlook. However, higher real yields could still outweigh that benefit in the short term.
Treasury Auctions and Pre-FOMC Positioning
The Treasury is expected to conduct important note auctions ahead of the Federal Reserve decision.
Official schedule:
What to watch:
Bid-to-cover ratios
Indirect bidder demand
Dealer participation
Auction tails or stops
Treasury yields
The US Dollar Index
Real yields
Strong auction demand could pull yields lower and support gold and silver. Weak demand could push yields higher, strengthen the dollar, and pressure precious metals before Wednesday’s FOMC decision. Pre-Fed position reduction could also create exaggerated moves in thinner summer trading.
Tuesday, July 28
Tuesday brings several secondary economic reports as the Federal Reserve begins its two-day meeting.
Housing Reports — 9:00 a.m. ET: The FHFA House Price Index and S&P Cotality Case-Shiller data will provide another look at one of the economy’s most interest-rate-sensitive sectors.
Official reports:
S&P Cotality Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
Weakness could show that elevated mortgage rates are putting greater pressure on affordability, home sales, construction, and financial conditions. Stronger prices could support household wealth and economic resilience but may complicate the inflation outlook.
Consumer Confidence — 10:00 a.m. ET: Consumer spending accounts for roughly two-thirds of US economic activity. I will focus on employment expectations, household income, inflation expectations, and major-purchase plans.
Official report:
The Conference Board: Consumer Confidence
Weak confidence could reinforce slowdown concerns and lower yields.
Strong confidence could support growth expectations but keep the Fed focused on inflation.
Richmond Fed Manufacturing — 10:00 a.m. ET: This report is especially relevant to silver because it tracks shipments, new orders, employment, wages, prices paid, capital expenditures, and expected business conditions.
Official report:
Richmond Fed Manufacturing Survey
Improving orders and shipments could support silver’s industrial-demand narrative. Weak manufacturing could raise demand concerns, although falling yields and increased expectations for monetary easing could still support silver’s monetary side
FOMC Meeting Begins: There will be no policy announcement Tuesday, but positioning in Treasury yields, the dollar, gold, and silver could become increasingly volatile. Any major Iran development could also change the inflation and growth assumptions officials are discussing behind closed doors.
Wednesday, July 29
Federal Reserve Rate Decision — 2:00 p.m. ET: This is the biggest scheduled policy event of the week. The Fed maintained a target range of 3.50%–3.75% at its June meeting.
Official release:
Federal Reserve: FOMC Calendar
Markets will immediately examine:
The interest-rate decision
Changes to the policy statement
Inflation language
Labor-market language
Economic-growth language
Balance-sheet policy
The voting breakdown
Any dissents
A dissent could be significant because it may reveal growing disagreement over whether inflation or economic weakness presents the greater risk. The July meeting does not include a scheduled Summary of Economic Projections or updated dot plot. That makes the statement and press conference even more important.
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Press Conference — 2:30 p.m. ET: The initial reaction to a Fed statement is often reversed after the Chair begins answering questions.
Official stream:
Federal Reserve: Live Video and Events
I will listen closely for comments about:
Whether inflation is becoming entrenched,
The inflationary effect of oil and energy prices
Whether the labor market is weakening
Conditions required for future rate cuts
The risk of additional rate increases
Treasury-market liquidity
Balance-sheet policy
The Iran war and shipping disruptions
Whether policy is sufficiently restrictive
Potentially Bullish for Gold and Silver
Concern about weakening growth
Concern about labor-market deterioration
Confidence that inflation could cool
Openness to future rate cuts
Falling Treasury and real yields
A weaker dollar
Concern about financial-market liquidity
Potentially Bearish for Gold and Silver
Greater emphasis on inflation risks
Warnings about persistent energy inflation
Openness to additional tightening
Rejection of near-term rate cuts
Rising real yields
A stronger dollar
Confidence that economic growth remains strong
Thursday, July 30
The Biggest Data Morning of the Week — 8:30 a.m. ET: Thursday brings the most important batch of economic data of the week. The Bureau of Economic Analysis will simultaneously release.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis will release:
Advance Q2 GDP
Headline PCE inflation
Core PCE inflation
Personal income
Consumer spending
Initial Jobless Claims will be released at the same time.
Why It Matters
Together, these reports could significantly reshape expectations for Federal Reserve policy, Treasury yields, real yields, and the US dollar—all major drivers of gold and silver prices.
I will be watching:
GDP growth and business investment
Consumer spending
Headline and Core PCE inflation
Initial Jobless Claims
Potential Market Impact
Cooler growth and inflation could lower Treasury yields, weaken the US dollar, increase expectations for future rate cuts, and support gold and silver.
Stronger growth or hotter inflation could push yields and the dollar higher, reducing expectations for easing and creating short-term pressure on precious metals.
Silver may outperform if economic growth remains healthy, but higher real yields could still outweigh its industrial-demand tailwind.
Federal Reserve Balance Sheet — 4:30 p.m. ET: The weekly H.4.1 report provides an updated look at Federal Reserve assets, bank reserves, reverse repos, and emergency lending. While one week's data rarely signals financial stress, unusual changes in liquidity are worth monitoring during a major Fed and inflation week.
Friday, July 31
Employment Cost Index (ECI) — 8:30 a.m. ET: Friday's reports will help determine whether markets agree with the week's Fed, GDP, and inflation data.
The Employment Cost Index measures wage growth, one of the Federal Reserve's key inflation indicators.
Cooler wage growth could lower Treasury yields and support gold and silver.
Hotter wage growth could strengthen the US dollar, push yields higher, and pressure precious metals.
2. Chicago Business Barometer — 9:45 a.m. ET: This manufacturing survey offers another read on US industrial activity. Stronger data could support silver's industrial-demand outlook, while weaker data could reinforce slowdown concerns.
ISM Chicago: Chicago Business Barometer
3. University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — 10:00 a.m. ET: I will primarily watch consumer inflation expectations, as they can influence Treasury yields, Federal Reserve expectations, and precious-metals prices.
University of Michigan: Surveys of Consumers
4. August COMEX Gold First Notice Day: First Notice Day provides another look at physical-delivery demand. I'll monitor:
August open interest
Delivery notices
Registered and eligible inventories
Firms issuing and stopping metal
Large delivery activity does not automatically signal stress, but it can reveal shifts in demand for physical gold.
CME Group: Gold Futures Calendar
CME Group: Delivery Notices and Metal Stocks
4. CFTC Gold and Silver Positioning — 3:30 p.m. ET: I'll watch managed-money positioning, producer hedging, and total open interest for signs that the futures market has become crowded ahead of next week's trading.
5. Late-Week China Watch: I'll continue monitoring Chinese manufacturing, physical gold demand, silver imports, Shanghai premiums, and industrial activity. Strong Asian demand can provide support for precious metals, particularly silver, even when Western futures traders are selling.
Throughout The Week
🌎 Middle East Watch
This remains my biggest wildcard. I'll continue watching developments involving:
Iran
Strait of Hormuz
Commercial shipping
Oil prices
US military activity
Any ceasefire or escalation headlines
Cascading effects from the conflict. (2nd, 3rd & 4th order effects)
One geopolitical headline could outweigh every scheduled economic report this week!
Treasury Yields, Real Yields and the US Dollar
2-year Treasury yield
10-year Treasury yield
10-year real yield
Yield-curve changes
Treasury-auction demand
Inflation breakevens
US Dollar Index
Bullish Combination for Metals
✅ Falling nominal yields
✅ Falling real yields
✅ Weaker US dollar
✅ Stable or elevated inflation expectations
Bearish Combination for Metals
❌ Rising nominal yields
❌ Rising real yields
❌ Stronger US dollar
❌ Hawkish Federal Reserve expectations
Central Bank Gold Buying
Central-bank demand remains one of gold’s strongest structural supports. China just set another record for gold added in June.
Official and industry sources:
I will watch for:
Updated reserve disclosures
Major purchases or sales
Gold repatriation announcements
Changes in gold’s share of reserves
Emerging-market currency stress
Five Things I'll Be Watching Every Morning
✔ Gold Price
✔ Silver Price
✔ US Dollar Index (DXY)
✔ 10-Year Treasury Yield & Real Yields
✔ Middle East & Oil Headlines
These five indicators often provide the earliest clues about where precious metals may head next.
Silver-Specific Watch
Silver is unique because it benefits from both monetary demand and industrial demand.
This week I'll be closely watching:
Manufacturing PMI
AI infrastructure expansion
Solar demand
COMEX positioning
China's physical market
The Gold/Silver Ratio
Ongoing structural supply deficits
Silver price relative to gold
If manufacturing data surprises to the upside while investment demand remains strong...
Silver could once again outperform gold.
Bottom Line
This is one of the most important gold and silver weeks of the summer. Wednesday brings the Federal Reserve decision and Kevin Warsh’s press conference. Thursday brings GDP, PCE inflation, Core PCE, personal income, consumer spending, and Initial Jobless Claims simultaneously. Friday brings the Employment Cost Index, COMEX gold delivery activity, and updated CFTC positioning.
Treasury auctions could also move yields before and during the Fed meeting. But the largest wildcard cannot be found on an economic calendar: The US-Iran war. One missile strike, tanker attack, ceasefire announcement, shipping disruption, or change involving the Strait of Hormuz could overpower every scheduled report this week.
The most important question may not be whether inflation rises, growth slows, or the Fed changes rates.
It may be how Treasury yields, real yields, oil prices, and the US dollar react to all of it. Expect volatility, avoid leverage, do not chase emotional price moves. Short-term volatility can create more attractive entry points, but not every dip is automatically a buying opportunity.
Watch premiums, spreads, real yields, and your personal financial situation before acting. Stackers using a long-term dollar-cost-averaging strategy should remain disciplined rather than reacting emotionally to one headline or data release.
For physical stackers, the long-term goal remains the same:
We stack. We hold. We think in years, not days.
Crustacean Nation 🦀
Which event do YOU think has the biggest chance of moving gold & silver this week?
🏦 Federal Reserve Decision
🔥 PCE Inflation
📊 Q2 GDP
🥇 COMEX Gold Deliveries
🌎 Iran and the Strait of Hormuz
📈 Treasury Yields
Stay consistent. Stay stacked.
— International Stacker
Not financial advice. Just some dude on the internet with Crabs!
Weekly Gold and Silver Calendar
Date | Event | Time ET | Primary Metals Risk |
Monday, July 27 | June Durable Goods Orders | 8:30 a.m. | Manufacturing, investment and yields |
Monday, July 27 | Treasury note auctions | Scheduled auction times | Treasury yields and US dollar |
Tuesday, July 28 | Housing reports | 9:00 a.m. | Rate-sensitive economic activity |
Tuesday, July 28 | Consumer Confidence | 10:00 a.m. | Spending and inflation expectations |
Tuesday, July 28 | Richmond Fed Manufacturing | 10:00 a.m. | Industrial demand and silver |
Tuesday, July 28 | FOMC meeting begins | All day | Pre-decision positioning |
Wednesday, July 29 | FOMC rate decision | 2:00 p.m. | Rates, real yields and dollar |
Wednesday, July 29 | Kevin Warsh press conference | 2:30 p.m. | Forward guidance and volatility |
Thursday, July 30 | Q2 GDP and June PCE inflation | 8:30 a.m. | Growth, inflation and Fed expectations |
Thursday, July 30 | Initial Jobless Claims | 8:30 a.m. | Labor-market conditions |
Thursday, July 30 | Fed balance-sheet report | 4:30 p.m. | Financial-system liquidity |
Friday, July 31 | Employment Cost Index | 8:30 a.m. | Wage inflation |
Friday, July 31 | Chicago Business Barometer | 9:45 a.m. | Manufacturing and silver demand |
Friday, July 31 | Michigan Consumer Sentiment | 10:00 a.m. | Inflation expectations |
Friday, July 31 | COMEX Gold First Notice Day | All day | Gold delivery positioning |
Friday, July 31 | CFTC gold and silver positioning | 3:30 p.m. | Futures crowding and reversal risk |
All week | Iran and Strait of Hormuz developments | Unscheduled | Oil, yields, dollar and safe-haven demand |
Research & Data Sources
FAQ: Gold & Silver Weekly Watchout
What will move gold prices this week?
The largest scheduled catalysts are the Federal Reserve decision Wednesday and the Q2 GDP and PCE inflation reports Thursday. However, a significant change in the US-Iran war could override those reports by moving oil, inflation expectations, yields, the US dollar, and safe-haven demand.
What will move silver prices this week?
Silver will react to Fed expectations, real yields, the dollar, and geopolitical risk, as well as manufacturing indicators such as Durable Goods Orders, Richmond Fed Manufacturing, Q2 GDP, Chicago manufacturing, and Chinese industrial activity.
When is the July 2026 Federal Reserve Decision?
The FOMC statement is scheduled for Wednesday, July 29 at 2:00 p.m. ET.
Chair Kevin Warsh’s press conference begins at 2:30 p.m. ET.
When is the June 2026 PCE inflation report?
The June Personal Income and Outlays report, including headline and Core PCE inflation, is scheduled for Thursday, July 30 at 8:30 a.m. ET.
Why does PCE inflation affect gold?
PCE is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure. It can change expectations for interest rates, Treasury yields, real yields, and the US dollar—all major short-term drivers of gold.
How could the Iran war affect precious metals?
Disruption to the Strait could restrict energy shipments, raise oil prices, increase inflation expectations, and create demand for safe-haven assets. It could also push bond yields and the dollar higher, creating a more complicated reaction in gold and silver.
How does the Strait of Hormuz affect gold and silver?
Very important. While economic reports are scheduled events, geopolitical headlines can move markets at any time. Any escalation involving Iran, commercial shipping, or the Strait of Hormuz could quickly increase demand for safe-haven assets such as gold. However, during the current conflict, some escalations have also triggered short-term sell-offs in precious metals as Treasury yields and the US dollar strengthened.
What is COMEX Gold First Notice Day?
First Notice Day is when holders of eligible futures positions may begin receiving notices associated with physical delivery. It can show how many contracts remain positioned for potential delivery rather than being closed or rolled.
Why does inflation matter for precious metals?
Gold and silver generally perform best when real interest rates are falling. Inflation reports heavily influence those expectations.
Why do real yields matter for gold?
Gold and silver do not pay interest. When inflation-adjusted returns on government bonds rise, non-yielding metals may face pressure. Falling real yields generally provide a more favorable environment for precious metals.
Why is silver often more volatile than gold?
Silver serves two roles.
It is both:
a precious metal
an industrial metal; Because of this dual demand, silver often experiences larger price swings than gold during both bull and bear markets.
Why should stackers watch China this week?
China is one of the world's largest consumers of silver for manufacturing, electronics, and solar production. Strong physical demand from China and activity on the Shanghai Gold Exchange can have a meaningful influence on global precious metals markets.
How important is the US Dollar this week?
Highly important. Gold and silver normally move inversely to the DXY. A weaker dollar tends to support higher precious metals prices.
Why is everyone watching Iran and the Strait of Hormuz?
Any escalation could affect oil prices, inflation expectations, global shipping, and safe-haven demand for gold.
What should stackers do during volatile weeks?
Stay focused on your long-term strategy. Avoid leverage, do not go into debt to purchase precious metals, compare premiums carefully, and do not allow one report or breaking headline to force an emotional decision.
What is the best strategy for stackers right now?
Stay consistent through Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). Focus on your long-term plan rather than trying to time every headline. Physical gold and silver remain excellent financial insurance during periods of uncertainty, inflation risks, and geopolitical tension.
What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?
Dollar Cost Averaging is an investment strategy where you purchase a fixed dollar amount of gold or silver on a regular schedule regardless of price. This helps remove emotion from investing while reducing the impact of short-term market volatility.
Why do many stackers use Dollar Cost Averaging?
Many long-term stackers use Dollar Cost Averaging because it avoids trying to perfectly time the market. When prices fall, the same dollar amount purchases more troy ounces. When prices rise, fewer ounces are purchased. Over time, this can lower the average cost per troy ounce.
Disclaimer: This website and my YouTube channel/social media are for entertainment and educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, investment professional, or licensed expert. Everything I share is my personal opinion as just some dude on the internet with crabs. None of the content is financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. You are solely responsible for your own investment and financial choices. I am not liable for any losses or decisions you make based on this content.
Important Opinion: Never go into debt to buy gold or silver. Do not use leverage, margin, or loans to purchase precious metals.
thanks! always helpful.