Gold & Silver Weekly Watchouts: PCE Inflation, Jackson Hole, GDP, Treasury Auctions & Trade War | August 24–30, 2026

Every Sunday, I publish the International Stacker Gold & Silver Weekly Watchouts to help the Crustacean Nation stay ahead of the biggest events that could impact gold, silver, mining stocks, Treasury yields, the US dollar, and the broader financial markets. This week, gold and silver enter the week of August 24–30, 2026 with a packed combination of inflation data, economic growth reports, Treasury auctions, central-bank communication and geopolitical risk.

This week is not built around one isolated report. It is built around a chain reaction:

INFLATION → FED EXPECTATIONS → TREASURY YIELDS → US DOLLAR → GOLD & SILVER

🔥Quick Summary – My Biggest Watchouts This Week

🏭Chicago Fed National Activity Index—Monday

🏠Home Prices + Consumer Confidence + New Home Sales—Tuesday

🏦$69B 2-Year Treasury Auction—Tuesday

🚨PCE & Core PCE Inflation + Personal Income & Spending—Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET

📊Q2 GDP Second Estimate + Corporate Profits—Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET

🏭Durable-Goods Orders—Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET

🛢️EIA Petroleum Status Report—Wednesday

🏦$70B 5-Year Treasury Auction—Wednesday

📉Jobless Claims + Advance Goods Trade & Inventories—Thursday

🏦$44B 7-Year Treasury Auction—Thursday

🌎Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium—Thursday Through Saturday

🚨Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Keynote—Friday at 10:00 AM ET

📊Chicago Business Barometer + Final Consumer Sentiment—Friday

🌎US–Canada Trade War & Tariffs—ALL WEEK

⚡Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Oil / Cyber Risk—ALL WEEK

🌎Russia–Ukraine Energy & Infrastructure Risk—ALL WEEK

💵Treasury Yields, Real Yields & US Dollar—ALL WEEK

🥈COMEX & Shanghai Silver Markets—ALL WEEK

🥇Physical Demand + Central-Bank Gold Buying—ALL WEEK

📈CFTC Gold & Silver Positioning—Friday

🚨MY BIGGEST GOLD & SILVER WATCHOUTS THIS WEEK

If I had to rank them:

🥇 1 — PCE Inflation + Revised GDP — Wednesday: The Fed’s preferred inflation gauge and its updated picture of economic growth arrive at the same time.

🥈 2 — Fed Chair Kevin Warsh at Jackson Hole — Friday: Markets will be hunting for clues about inflation, rates, rising long-term yields and the Fed’s next move.

🥉 3 — Treasury Auctions — Tuesday through Thursday: Three consecutive tests of demand for $183 billion of 2, 5 and 7-year notes.

🌎 4 — US–Canada Tariffs + Iran / Hormuz / Cyber Risk — All Week: The biggest unscheduled sources of inflation, oil and safe-haven volatility.

Why does Wednesday rank first? At 8:30 AM ET, the US government releases July PCE inflation, personal income and spending, revised second-quarter GDP, corporate profits and durable-goods orders.

Then on Friday at 10:00 AM ET, Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh delivers his keynote remarks at Jackson Hole. Between those events, the Treasury will test demand on three consecutive days:

🏦 $69 billion of 2-year notes

🏦 $70 billion of 5-year notes

🏦 $44 billion of 7-year notes

Outside the calendar, the geopolitical backdrop is also heating up:

• The US–Canada trade dispute has escalated following new 50% US tariffs on a reported $20 billion of Canadian goods.

• Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs scheduled to begin September 8.

• A newly reported cyberattack attributed to Iran-linked hackers reportedly shut a small UK power facility for four days in July.

• Iran, US sanctions and the Strait of Hormuz remain major oil and inflation wildcards.

• Russia–Ukraine attacks on energy and military infrastructure remain capable of moving oil, yields and safe-haven demand.

  
  

Here is everything I am watching—and why it could matter for gold and silver prices.

📅This Week’s Key Events

Monday, August 24

1. 🏭Chicago Fed National Activity Index— Monday begins relatively quietly with a broad look at US economic activity.

   
   

   The Chicago Fed National Activity Index combines numerous economic indicators covering:

✔ Production and income

✔ Employment and hours

✔ Personal consumption and housing

✔ Sales, orders and inventories

This report is not normally a top-tier precious-metals catalyst, but it can help establish the growth narrative before Wednesday’s major releases.

🟢 Potentially Bullish for Gold & Silver

✅Activity weakens materially

✅Recession concerns increase

✅Treasury yields decline

✅Markets price a less hawkish Fed

✅The US dollar weakens

🔴 Potentially Bearish for Gold & Silver

❌Activity surprises higher

❌Growth appears more resilient

❌Treasury yields rise

❌The US dollar strengthens

My Take

Monday is primarily the setup day. Markets will be positioning for Wednesday’s inflation and growth data while digesting the weekend’s trade and geopolitical headlines.

Do not underestimate the potential for US–Canada tariff developments, Iran headlines or oil prices to overpower a quiet economic calendar.

Tuesday, August 25

1. 🏠 US Home-Price Data — 9:00 AM ET: The FHFA House Price Index and S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller home-price data provide another look at housing inflation and affordability.

I’ll be watching:

✔ Whether home-price growth is accelerating or cooling

✔ The effect of high mortgage rates

✔ Regional price differences

✔ Signs that affordability pressure is weakening demand

My Take

Housing can influence the inflation outlook because shelter costs remain important to household budgets and broader price measures.

2. 🚨Consumer Confidence — 10:00 AM ET: The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Index can help reveal whether households are becoming more optimistic—or more defensive.

   
   

Watch:

✔Present conditions

✔Expectations

✔Labor-market perceptions

✔Inflation expectations

✔Big-ticket purchase plans

Weak confidence can support the slowing-growth narrative. However, rising consumer inflation expectations could push yields higher—even if confidence deteriorates.

🚨 STAGFLATION WATCH

The most uncomfortable combination would be:

📉Consumer confidence falls

🔥Inflation expectations rise

That would signal weaker confidence without relief from inflation.

3. 🏠 New Home Sales — 10:00 AM ET: At the same time, the Census Bureau releases July new-home sales.

   
   

I’ll be watching:

✔Sales pace

✔Inventory

✔Median price

✔Months of supply

✔Revisions

Housing remains highly sensitive to mortgage rates. A major miss could reinforce concerns that elevated borrowing costs are weakening the economy.

4. 🏦 $69 Billion 2-Year Treasury Auction — 1:00 PM ET: The first major Treasury note auction of the week tests investor demand for short-term US government debt. The Treasury will sell 2-year notes, which pay a fixed rate of interest—known as the coupon—every six months until maturity.

   
   

   The 2-year note sits near the “front end” of the Treasury yield curve, meaning it has a relatively short maturity. Its yield is especially sensitive to expectations for Federal Reserve policy because investors are estimating where interest rates will be during the next two years.

I’ll be watching:

✔ High yield versus the when-issued yield

✔ Bid-to-cover ratio

✔ Indirect bidder demand

✔ Direct bidder demand

✔ Primary-dealer takedown

✔ Immediate reaction in the 2-year yield and US dollar

In plain English: strong demand usually helps Treasury yields fall, while weak demand can push yields higher. Falling yields are generally more supportive for gold & silver than rising yields.

🟢 Potentially Bullish for Gold & Silver

✅ Strong auction demand

✅ Auction stops through

✅ Yields fall

✅ Dollar weakens

🔴 Potentially Bearish for Gold & Silver

❌ Weak auction demand

❌ Auction tails

❌ Dealers absorb unusually heavy supply

❌ Yields and the dollar rise

Treasury Bill vs. Note vs. Bond—All Are US Government Debt

✔Treasury bills: Mature in 1 year or less & are generally sold at a discount rather than paying regular interest.

✔Treasury notes: Mature in 2–10 years and generally pay fixed interest every six months.

✔Treasury bonds: Mature in more than 10 years and generally pay fixed interest every six months.

What is a coupon? The coupon is the stated interest payment on a Treasury note or bond. It is not a separate type of Treasury security.

My Take

Tuesday gives us a mix of housing, consumer psychology and Fed-sensitive Treasury demand. It may not be the week’s largest volatility day, but it could shape positioning ahead of Wednesday morning.

…the Fed may have more room to remain hawkish.

🔥Wednesday, August 26 — THE BIG DATA DAY

1. 🏦 PCE Inflation + Core PCE — 8:30 AM ET: The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

The report includes:

✔ Headline PCE month over month

✔ Headline PCE year over year

✔ Core PCE month over month

✔ Core PCE year over year

✔ Personal income

✔ Consumer spending

✔ Real spending after inflation

The previous headline PCE reading for June was 3.7% year over year. Markets will be watching whether July shows genuine cooling—or another reminder that inflation remains above the Fed’s target.

🟢 Bullish for Gold & Silver

✅ Headline and core PCE cool more than expected

✅ Consumer spending weakens

✅ Real yields fall

✅ Rate-hike expectations decline

✅ Dollar weakens

🔴 Bearish for Gold & Silver

❌ Headline or core PCE runs hotter than expected

❌ Consumer spending remains strong

❌ Real yields rise

❌ Markets price a more hawkish Fed

❌ Dollar strengthens

⚠️ Important Nuance

Hot inflation can be BEARISH for gold and silver in the short term. Why? A hotter-than-expected inflation report can cause markets to expect higher interest rates for longer. That can push Treasury yields, real yields and the US dollar higher—creating immediate pressure on precious-metals prices.

The immediate market reaction often depends on what happens to real yields and the dollar:

🔥 Hot PCE → more hawkish Fed pricing → higher real yields → potential pressure on gold and silver

❄️ Cool PCE → less hawkish Fed pricing → lower real yields → potential support for gold and silver

Over longer periods, persistent inflation can strengthen the monetary case for precious metals. But on release day, watch the bond market first.

2. 📊 Revised Q2 GDP + Corporate Profits — 8:30 AM ET: The US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) will also publish its second estimate of second-quarter US Gross Domestic Product (GDP). The advance estimate showed annualized growth of 1.5%.

I’ll be watching:

✔ Whether growth is revised higher or lower

✔ Consumer spending

✔ Business investment

✔ Government spending

✔ Imports and exports

✔ Corporate profits

🟢 Potentially Bullish

✅ GDP is revised lower

✅ Corporate profits weaken

✅ Yields decline

✅ Markets expect easier monetary policy

🔴 Potentially Bearish

❌ GDP is revised materially higher

❌ Corporate profits remain strong

❌ Yields rise

❌ Markets expect tighter policy for longer

3. 🏭 Durable-Goods Orders — 8:30 AM ET: Durable-goods orders provide a look at demand for long-lasting manufactured products such as aircraft, machinery, vehicles and equipment.

   
   

I’ll be watching:

✔ Headline orders

✔ Orders excluding transportation

✔ Core capital-goods orders

✔ Core capital-goods shipments

✔ Revisions

This report can be volatile because aircraft orders can distort the headline. The core capital-goods components often provide a cleaner signal about business investment.

🥈 Silver Watch

Silver has both monetary and industrial demand. That makes durable-goods and manufacturing data more complicated for silver than for gold.

A weak report can create two competing reactions:

📈 Monetary channel: weaker growth → lower yields → potentially supportive for precious metals

📉 Industrial channel: weaker capital spending → softer industrial-demand expectations → potential pressure on silver

Gold may react primarily through yields, the dollar and safe-haven demand. Silver must also absorb any change in expectations for industrial consumption. That is why weak economic data is not automatically bullish for silver—even when it helps gold.

THE COMBINATION MATTERS...

Wednesday’s most important question is not whether one number beats or misses.

It is whether the full package points toward:

Scenario 1 — Cooling Inflation + Weakening Growth

📉 PCE cools

📉 GDP is revised lower

📉 Spending weakens

📉 Durable goods disappoint

This could push yields and the dollar lower—potentially supportive for gold and silver.

Scenario 2 — Sticky Inflation + Weakening Growth

🔥 PCE remains hot

📉 GDP or spending weakens

This is the stagflation scenario. It can strengthen gold’s long-term monetary appeal, but the immediate reaction will depend on whether inflation pushes yields higher.

Scenario 3 — Sticky Inflation + Resilient Growth

🔥 PCE remains hot

💪 GDP and spending remain firm

💪 Durable goods beat

This could give the Fed more room to remain hawkish and may pressure metals through higher yields and a stronger dollar.

4. 🛢️ EIA Petroleum Status Report — 10:30 AM ET: Oil remains unusually important because the Iran conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions continue to influence inflation expectations.

   
   

I’ll be watching:

✔ Crude inventories

✔ Gasoline inventories

✔ Distillates

✔ Refinery utilization

✔ US production

✔ Immediate oil-price reaction

A major oil move can flow through the market like this:

OIL → INFLATION EXPECTATIONS → TREASURY YIELDS → FED PRICING → GOLD & SILVER

5. 🏦 $70 Billion 5-Year Treasury Auction — 1:00 PM ET: Wednesday’s 5-year auction arrives after the morning’s PCE, GDP and durable-goods releases. That timing makes it especially interesting. Investors will already be repricing the inflation and growth outlook before deciding how much yield they require to finance the government for five years.

   
   

   Again, the simple translation is: strong bidding can help yields move lower; weak bidding can force the government to pay more and push market yields higher.

My Take

Wednesday is my top scheduled volatility day of the week. We get inflation, growth, spending, business investment, oil and Treasury demand—all before the afternoon is over. If those signals push yields in the same direction, gold and silver could feel it quickly.

Thursday, August 27

1. 📉Initial Jobless Claims — 8:30 AM ET: Weekly claims provide another timely look at the labor market.

I’ll be watching:

✔ Initial claims

✔ Continuing claims

✔ Four-week average

✔ Revisions

🟢 Potentially Bullish for Gold & Silver

✅ Claims rise materially

✅ Labor-market weakness increases

✅ Yields fall

✅ Fed hawkishness fades

🔴 Potentially Bearish for Gold & Silver

❌ Claims remain low

❌ Labor market remains resilient

❌ Yields rise

❌ Fed tightening expectations increase

2. 🚢 Advance Goods Trade Balance + Inventories — 8:30 AM ET: The Census Bureau releases the advance international trade in goods report alongside wholesale and retail inventory estimates. This is normally a secondary precious-metals catalyst, but it becomes more relevant during an escalating trade dispute. Changes in imports, exports and business inventories may reveal whether tariffs are already disrupting supply chains, raising costs or weakening trade activity. Those effects can influence inflation expectations, economic growth, Treasury yields and ultimately gold and silver prices.

   
   

I’ll be watching:

✔ Imports and exports

✔ The goods-trade deficit

✔ Inventory accumulation

✔ Signs that tariffs are changing trade flows

✔ Potential revisions to growth expectations

3. 🏦 $44 Billion 7-Year Treasury Auction — 1:00 PM ET: The final major Treasury note auction of the week tests demand farther along the Treasury yield curve. After the 2-year and 5-year auctions, the 7-year sale will help show whether investors are comfortable buying more US government debt at current yields—or require higher yields to participate. Weak demand across several Treasury auctions could lower Treasury prices and push yields higher, creating a potential headwind for gold and silver. Strong demand could raise Treasury prices and help yields fall, which is generally more supportive for precious metals.

   
   

   For newer stackers: an auction that “stops through” generally indicates stronger-than-expected demand, while an auction that “tails” generally indicates weaker-than-expected demand. And gold pays VERY close attention to real yields.

4. 🌎 Jackson Hole Symposium Begins: The Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City’s 2026 Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium runs August 27–29 under the theme:

   “Financial Innovation: Implications for Payments and Policy”

   
   

   The symposium brings together central bankers, policymakers, economists and academics. Headlines can emerge throughout the event, but the main scheduled market focus is Chairman Warsh’s Friday keynote.

Friday, August 28  — WARSH AT JACKSON HOLE

1. 🏦 Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Keynote — 10:00 AM ET: This is my top central-bank watchout of the week.

   
   

Markets will be listening for any signal on:

✔ Inflation

✔ Real interest rates

✔ The labor market

✔ Rising long-term Treasury yields

✔ Balance-sheet policy

✔ The timing and direction of the next rate move

✔ The Fed’s response to tariff-driven inflation

✔ Financial innovation and payment systems

Warsh is speaking only two days after PCE and revised GDP. That means he will have fresh inflation and growth data available when he addresses the market.

🟢 Potentially Bullish for Gold & Silver

✅ Warsh emphasizes slowing growth

✅ He acknowledges downside labor risks

✅ He sounds less concerned about persistent inflation

✅ Markets reduce rate-hike expectations

✅ Real yields and the dollar decline

🔴 Potentially Bearish for Gold & Silver

❌ Warsh emphasizes persistent inflation

❌ He warns rates may need to remain high—or rise

❌ He pushes back against easier policy

❌ Real yields and the dollar strengthen

⚠️ Important

Do not react only to one headline or isolated sentence.

I’ll be watching:

📈 2-year Treasury yield

📈 10-year Treasury yield

📈 Real yields

💵 US Dollar Index

🥇 Gold

🥈 Silver

The market reaction will tell us how investors interpreted the speech.

2. 📊 Final University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment — 10:00 AM ET: At the same time as Warsh’s speech, we receive the final August reading for consumer sentiment. The inflation-expectations components may be particularly important after PCE and during the US–Canada tariff escalation.

I’ll be watching:

✔ Headline sentiment

✔ Current conditions

✔ Expectations

✔ One-year inflation expectations

✔ Five-year inflation expectations

3. 🏭 Chicago Business Barometer — 9:45 AM ET: This regional activity indicator arrives shortly before Warsh speaks. It is secondary to the Fed event, but a large surprise could affect yields and the dollar going into the keynote.

4. 📈 CFTC Gold & Silver Positioning — Afternoon: As always, I’ll review futures positioning for clues about whether the precious-metals trade is becoming crowded—or still has fuel.

   
   

   I’ll be watching:

   ✔ Managed Money longs

   ✔ Managed Money shorts

   ✔ Commercial positioning

   ✔ Short covering

   ✔ Changes in open interest

   
   

   Positioning cannot tell us where price must go, but it can reveal whether a move is being driven by new buying, short covering or an increasingly crowded trade.

🌎All-Week Gold & Silver Watchouts

🔥 US–CANADA TRADE WAR & TARIFFS

Trade negotiations between the US and Canada deteriorated sharply heading into the week.

According to current reporting:

🔥 The US imposed 50% tariffs on a reported $20 billion of Canadian goods.

🔥 The measures cover products across multiple industries.

🔥 Canada announced reciprocal tariffs scheduled to begin September 8.

🔥 The dispute raises new questions about supply chains and the future of the USMCA framework.

Why Gold & Silver Care

Tariffs can affect precious metals through several channels:

1. Inflation: Import taxes can increase costs for businesses and consumers.

2. Growth: Retaliation and disrupted trade can weaken economic activity.

3. Currency markets: A worsening dispute can move the US and Canadian dollars.

4. Treasury yields: Tariff-driven inflation may push yields higher, while growth fears may push them lower.

5. Industrial demand: Silver can react to changing expectations for manufacturing, electronics, vehicles and construction.

This creates another two-sided setup:

📈Potentially supportive: trade conflict → weaker growth / risk aversion → lower yields / safe-haven demand

📉 Potentially negative: tariffs → higher inflation → more hawkish Fed / higher yields

The market may move between those narratives rapidly.

⚡IRAN-LINKED CYBERATTACK ON UK ENERGY FACILITY

A newly published report says hackers believed to be linked to Iran forced a small British power facility offline for four days in July 2026.

Important accuracy points:

✔ The incident was reported publicly on August 23.

✔ The attribution is to hackers believed to be Iran-linked.

✔ The affected generator was described as small-scale.

✔ Officials said the wider UK energy system was not disrupted.

✔ The incident nevertheless raises concern about cyber risk to Western infrastructure.

Why Gold & Silver Care

This one facility did not disrupt the broader British grid. The larger market issue is the precedent: geopolitical conflict can spread beyond missiles, shipping lanes and sanctions into cyberattacks against energy and water systems.

Escalation could influence:

⚡ Energy security

🛢️ Oil and gas risk premiums

📈 Inflation expectations

🏦 Treasury yields and central-bank policy

🥇 Safe-haven demand for gold

Silver may benefit from monetary demand during a risk event, but higher energy costs and concerns about industrial growth can complicate its reaction.

🥈 STRAIT OF HORMUZ, US SANCTIONS & OIL

Iran remains the most important unscheduled geopolitical wildcard for precious metals. The US is preparing additional sanctions, while Iranian officials continue issuing forceful warnings. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted, even as vessel traffic has reportedly improved from extremely depressed levels.

I’ll be watching:

✔ New US sanctions

✔ Iran’s response

✔ Strait of Hormuz shipping

✔ Attacks on vessels or infrastructure

✔ Diplomatic negotiations

✔ Oil prices

✔ Inflation expectations

✔ Treasury yields

The simple formula “war equals gold up” has not worked reliably during this conflict.

Two forces continue to compete:

🥇 Safe-haven channel: escalation → fear and uncertainty → potential demand for gold

🛢️ Inflation/yield channel: escalation → oil rises → inflation expectations rise → yields rise → potential pressure on gold and silver

Watch the oil and bond markets—not just the geopolitical headline.

🥇 RUSSIA–UKRAINE & ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE

Russia and Ukraine remain capable of moving energy markets through attacks on refineries, pipelines, storage facilities and other infrastructure. Reports heading into the week point to continued Russian missile attacks and Ukrainian strikes on Russian economic and military targets, while diplomacy remains stalled.

This matters because a major energy disruption can affect:

🛢️ Oil prices

🔥 European energy costs

📈 Inflation expectations

💵 Currency markets

🥇 Safe-haven demand

The immediate gold and silver reaction will depend on whether markets prioritize fear—or the resulting inflation and yield response.

💵 TREASURY YIELDS, REAL YIELDS & THE US DOLLAR

These remain among the most important daily drivers of gold and silver.

In simple terms:

📉 Falling real yields + weaker dollar = generally supportive for gold

📈 Rising real yields + stronger dollar = generally a headwind for gold

Silver frequently follows gold’s monetary reaction, but silver’s industrial-demand exposure can cause it to outperform or underperform.

This week contains several potential yield catalysts:

✔ PCE inflation

✔ Revised GDP

✔ Durable-goods orders

✔ Consumer confidence

✔ Jobless claims

✔ Warsh at Jackson Hole

✔ Three Treasury auctions

✔ Tariffs and oil

That is why I will be watching the bond market continuously.

🏪 COMEX & SHANGHAI SILVER — ALL WEEK

I’m continuing to watch:

✔ COMEX inventories

✔ Delivery activity

✔ Futures positioning

✔ Shanghai silver prices

✔ Shanghai premiums

✔ Physical flows

✔ Dealer inventories and retail premiums

Silver is being pulled by both monetary and industrial narratives. Divergences between Western futures markets and Asian physical markets remain especially important.

🧭CENTRAL-BANK GOLD, ETFs & PHYSICAL DEMAND

Central-bank gold accumulation is a structural driver, not necessarily a minute-to-minute trading catalyst.

I’ll continue watching:

🏦 Central-bank purchases

🌎 Asian physical demand

💰 Gold ETF flows

🥇 Physical premiums

📦 Dealer inventory

💵 US-dollar reserve diversification

These factors may not determine how gold reacts at 8:30 AM Wednesday, but they remain essential to the longer-term market.

🦀BOTTOM LINE FOR STACKERS

Last week centered on:

FED MINUTES → TREASURY YIELDS → GOLD & SILVER

This week becomes:

PCE + GDP → WARSH AT JACKSON HOLE → YIELDS + DOLLAR → GOLD & SILVER

But do not forget the wildcards:

🌎 US–Canada tariffs

🌎 Iran and the Strait of Hormuz

⚡ Cyberattacks on energy infrastructure

🛢️ Oil

🌎 Russia–Ukraine

💵 US dollar

📈 Real yields

Wednesday and Friday are the two scheduled windows most likely to produce major volatility. However, stackers should remember:

WE STACK. WE HOLD. WE THINK IN YEARS, NOT DAYS.

Understanding PCE inflation, Federal Reserve policy, Treasury auctions, tariffs and geopolitical risk can help us recognize volatility and compare buying opportunities. But a stacking plan should not be rebuilt around every economic headline.

Weekly volatility is part of the journey. Stay informed, stay disciplined and let the deals dictate your buys.

🦀Crustacean Nation

What is YOUR biggest gold and silver watchout this week?

📊 PCE inflation?

🏦 Warsh at Jackson Hole?

📈 Treasury auctions?

🌎 US–Canada tariffs?

🌎 Iran and the Strait of Hormuz?

🥈 Silver’s next move?

Do you expect gold and silver to finish the week HIGHER or LOWER?

Drop your prediction below!

— International Stacker

Stay consistent. Stay stacked! 🦀

Not financial advice. Just some dude on the internet with crabs!

Weekly Gold and Silver Calendar

Day	Time ET	Event	Importance for Gold & Silver
Monday, Aug. 24	Morning	Chicago Fed National Activity Index	🟡 Medium
Monday, Aug. 24	All day	US–Canada tariffs / Iran / oil headlines	🔴 Very High
Tuesday, Aug. 25	9:00 AM	FHFA & Case-Shiller Home Prices	🟡 Medium
Tuesday, Aug. 25	10:00 AM	Consumer Confidence	🟠 High
Tuesday, Aug. 25	10:00 AM	New Home Sales	🟡 Medium
Tuesday, Aug. 25	1:00 PM	$69B 2-Year Treasury Auction	🟠 High
Wednesday, Aug. 26	8:30 AM	PCE & Core PCE Inflation	🔴 Very High
Wednesday, Aug. 26	8:30 AM	Personal Income & Spending	🟠 High
Wednesday, Aug. 26	8:30 AM	Q2 GDP Second Estimate & Corporate Profits	🔴 Very High
Wednesday, Aug. 26	8:30 AM	Durable-Goods Orders	🟠 High
Wednesday, Aug. 26	10:30 AM	EIA Petroleum Status Report	🟠 High
Wednesday, Aug. 26	1:00 PM	$70B 5-Year Treasury Auction	🟠 High
Thursday, Aug. 27	8:30 AM	Initial Jobless Claims	🟠 High
Thursday, Aug. 27	8:30 AM	Advance Goods Trade & Inventories	🟡 Medium
Thursday, Aug. 27	1:00 PM	$44B 7-Year Treasury Auction	🟠 High
Thursday–Saturday	—	Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium	🔴 Very High
Friday, Aug. 28	9:45 AM	Chicago Business Barometer	🟡 Medium
Friday, Aug. 28	10:00 AM	Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Keynote	🔴 Very High
Friday, Aug. 28	10:00 AM	Final Consumer Sentiment & Inflation Expectations	🟠 High
Friday, Aug. 28	Afternoon	CFTC Gold & Silver Positioning	🟡 Medium
All week	—	US–Canada Trade War & Tariffs	🔴 Very High
All week	—	Iran / Strait of Hormuz / Oil / Cyber Risk	🔴 Very High
All week	—	Treasury Yields, Real Yields & US Dollar	🔴 Very High
All week	—	COMEX & Shanghai Silver Markets	🟠 High
All week	—	Central-Bank Gold & Physical Demand	🟠 High

📚 Sources & Official Data

• Bureau of Economic Analysis — PCE inflation, personal income and spending, GDP and corporate profits

• US Census Bureau Economic Indicator Calendar — durable goods, new-home sales, trade and inventories

• Federal Reserve August 2026 Calendar — Chairman Warsh’s Jackson Hole keynote

• Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City — Jackson Hole symposium dates and theme

• US Treasury Tentative Auction Schedule — 2-, 5- and 7-year auction dates

• Treasury Direct Auction Data — auction announcements and results

• Conference Board Consumer Confidence — consumer-confidence data

• University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers — sentiment and inflation expectations

• US Energy Information Administration — weekly petroleum data

• CFTC Commitments of Traders — gold and silver futures positioning

• The Guardian: US–Canada Trade Dispute — tariff escalation and Canadian response

• The Guardian: Iran-Linked UK Power Facility Cyberattack — newly reported July cyber incident

• Reuters: Iran and New US Sanctions — sanctions and geopolitical developments

• Reuters: Russia–Ukraine Developments — current conflict and infrastructure risks

  
  

FAQ: Gold & Silver Weekly Watchout

What will move gold prices this week?

The biggest scheduled catalysts are Wednesday’s PCE inflation report, revised second-quarter GDP, personal income and spending, durable-goods orders and Friday’s Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh keynote at Jackson Hole. Gold could also react to the three major Treasury note auctions, consumer confidence, jobless claims, Treasury yields, real yields, the US dollar, oil prices, US–Canada tariffs and developments involving Iran or the Strait of Hormuz.

What will move silver prices this week?

Silver will react to many of the same factors as gold, including PCE inflation, Federal Reserve expectations, Treasury yields, real yields, the US dollar and geopolitical risk. Because silver is also an industrial metal, durable-goods orders, manufacturing expectations, economic growth, Chinese demand, COMEX positioning, Shanghai prices and physical demand could also influence its price. Weak economic data can support silver’s monetary appeal if it lowers yields. However, the same data can pressure silver if it reduces expectations for industrial demand.

When is the July 2026 PCE Report?

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis will release the July PCE Price Index on Wednesday, August 26, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.

The report will include:

• Headline PCE inflation

• Core PCE inflation

• Personal income

• Consumer spending

• Inflation-adjusted consumer spending

  
  

PCE stands for Personal Consumption Expenditures. It is the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation gauge.

Why does PCE inflation matter for gold and silver?

PCE inflation can change expectations for Federal Reserve policy. A hotter-than-expected report can be bearish for gold and silver in the short term if it causes markets to expect higher interest rates for longer. That can push Treasury yields, real yields and the US dollar higher. A cooler-than-expected report may reduce expectations for tighter monetary policy, helping yields and the dollar decline. That would generally create a more supportive environment for precious metals. Persistent inflation may strengthen the long-term case for owning gold and silver, but the immediate market reaction often depends on what happens to bond yields and the dollar.

Why is Wednesday especially important for gold and silver?

Several major US economic reports will be released simultaneously at 8:30 AM ET on Wednesday:

• PCE and Core PCE inflation

• Personal income and consumer spending

• Second estimate of Q2 GDP

• Corporate profits

• Durable-goods orders

  
  

The EIA Petroleum Status Report follows at 10:30 AM ET, and the Treasury will auction $70 billion of 5-year notes at 1:00 PM ET.

That gives markets information about inflation, economic growth, consumer demand, business investment, energy and Treasury demand—all in one day. If these reports push Treasury yields and the US dollar in the same direction, gold and silver could experience significant volatility.

What is the US Bureau of Economic Analysis?

The US Bureau of Economic Analysis, commonly called the BEA, is part of the US Department of Commerce.

It produces major economic reports, including:

• Gross Domestic Product

• PCE inflation

• Personal income and spending

• Corporate profits

• International trade and investment data

Why does revised Q2 GDP matter for precious metals?

GDP measures the value of goods and services produced in the economy. The BEA’s advance estimate showed second-quarter US economic growth at an annualized rate of 1.5%. A downward revision could strengthen concerns about economic weakness and potentially push Treasury yields lower. An upward revision could suggest the economy is more resilient, giving the Federal Reserve more room to keep monetary policy restrictive. Gold may benefit if weaker growth lowers real yields or increases safe-haven demand. Silver’s response can be more complicated because weaker growth may also reduce expectations for industrial demand.

Why do durable-goods orders matter for silver?

Durable-goods orders measure demand for long-lasting manufactured products such as machinery, vehicles, aircraft and business equipment. Silver is both a precious metal and an industrial commodity. A weak durable-goods report can therefore create competing pressures:

📈 Potentially bullish: Weaker economic activity could increase expectations for easier Federal Reserve policy and lower yields.

📉 Potentially bearish: Reduced business investment and manufacturing activity could weaken expectations for industrial silver demand.

This competing monetary and industrial exposure generally makes economic data more complicated for silver than for gold.

When is Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole?

Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver keynote remarks on Friday, August 28, at 10:00 AM ET.

Markets will listen for signals about:

• Inflation

• Interest rates

• Labor-market conditions

• Rising long-term Treasury yields

• Balance-sheet policy

• Tariff-related inflation

• The direction of the next Federal Reserve rate move

  
  

Warsh will speak two days after the PCE and GDP reports, giving him fresh inflation and growth data to address. The reaction in the 2-year yield, 10-year yield, real yields, US dollar, gold and silver will likely matter more than any isolated sentence from the speech.

Which Treasury auctions are happening this week?

The Treasury will auction three major Treasury notes:

• $69 billion of 2-year notes—Tuesday

• $70 billion of 5-year notes—Wednesday

• $44 billion of 7-year notes—Thursday

  
  

Together, these auctions will test investor demand for $183 billion of US government debt.

What is the difference between a Treasury bill, note and bond?

All three represent US government debt. Their official names depend on how long they take to mature:

✔Treasury bills: Mature in 1 year or less & are generally sold at a discount rather than paying regular interest.

✔ Treasury notes: Mature in 2–10 years and generally pay fixed interest every six months.

✔ Treasury bonds: Mature in more than 10 years and generally pay fixed interest every six months.

The 2-year, 5-year and 7-year securities being auctioned this week are all officially Treasury notes.

What is a Treasury coupon?

A coupon is the stated interest paid by a Treasury note or bond. It is not a separate type of Treasury security.

For example, a 2-year Treasury note generally pays its fixed coupon interest every six months until maturity. At maturity, the government returns the principal to the owner.

Why do Treasury auctions matter for gold?

Treasury auctions provide a real-time look at investor demand for US government debt. Strong demand can increase Treasury prices and help yields fall. Weak demand can lower Treasury prices and force the government to offer higher yields to attract buyers. Because gold does not pay interest, rising real yields can increase the opportunity cost of holding gold. Falling real yields generally create a more supportive environment for precious metals.

What does it mean when a Treasury auction “tails” or “stops through”?

An auction that tails generally indicates weaker-than-expected demand. The Treasury must offer a slightly higher yield than the market expected immediately before the auction. An auction that stops through generally indicates stronger-than-expected demand. Investors accept a slightly lower yield than the pre-auction market expected.

In plain English:

• Strong demand usually helps yields fall.

• Weak demand can push yields higher.

Why do Treasury yields sometimes matter more than the economic data?

Gold does not always react directly to whether an economic report is described as “good” or “bad.”

The more important short-term chain is often:

Economic Data → Federal Reserve Expectations → Treasury Yields → Real Yields → US Dollar → Gold & Silver

A weak report could hurt gold if another part of the report raises inflation expectations and pushes yields higher. A strong report could help gold if markets interpret it as reducing financial risk or inflation pressure.

Watch the market reaction—not merely the headline number.

Why is the US dollar important for gold and silver?

Gold and silver are globally priced in US dollars and often have an inverse relationship with the US Dollar Index. A weaker dollar can make precious metals less expensive for buyers using other currencies and may support prices. A stronger dollar can create a headwind. However, this relationship is not guaranteed and can temporarily break during major market or geopolitical events.

Why do consumer confidence and new-home sales matter?

Consumer confidence provides information about household expectations, employment perceptions, inflation concerns and planned purchases. New-home sales provide another look at interest-rate-sensitive housing demand. Weak results could reinforce concerns about slowing economic growth and help yields fall. However, falling confidence combined with rising inflation expectations could create a stagflation warning.

How could US–Canada tariffs affect gold and silver?

The US–Canada trade dispute has escalated following new 50% US tariffs on a reported $20 billion of Canadian goods. Canada has announced retaliatory tariffs scheduled to begin September 8.

Tariffs can affect precious metals through several channels:

• Higher consumer and business costs

• Supply-chain disruptions

• Slower economic growth

• Inflation expectations

• Treasury yields

• Currency movements

• Manufacturing and industrial demand

  
  

The effect is two-sided. Trade conflict can increase safe-haven demand and weaken growth, but tariff-driven inflation can also push yields higher and pressure precious metals.

What is the best strategy for stackers right now?

Stay consistent through Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA). Focus on your long-term plan rather than trying to time every headline. Many stackers view physical gold and silver as financial insurance during periods of monetary, inflation and geopolitical uncertainty.

What is Dollar Cost Averaging (DCA)?

Dollar Cost Averaging is an investment strategy where you purchase a fixed dollar amount of gold or silver on a regular schedule regardless of price. This helps remove emotion from investing while reducing the impact of short-term market volatility.

Why do many stackers use Dollar Cost Averaging?

Many long-term stackers use Dollar Cost Averaging because it avoids trying to perfectly time the market. When prices fall, the same dollar amount purchases more troy ounces. When prices rise, fewer ounces are purchased. Over time, this can lower the average cost per troy ounce.

What happened to the UK power facility reportedly targeted by Iran-linked hackers?

A newly published report says hackers believed to be linked to Iran forced a small British power facility offline for four days in July 2026. The incident became public on August 23. Officials said the affected generator was small-scale and the wider UK energy system was not disrupted. The larger concern is that geopolitical conflict can expand beyond sanctions, missiles and shipping into cyberattacks against energy and water infrastructure.

How could Iran and the Strait of Hormuz affect precious metals?

Escalation involving Iran or the Strait of Hormuz could disrupt energy markets, increase oil prices, raise inflation expectations and trigger safe-haven demand. However, higher oil prices can also push Treasury yields and the US dollar higher if markets expect more persistent inflation or tighter Federal Reserve policy.

Two forces are competing:

🥇 Safe-haven channel: Escalation increases uncertainty and potential demand for gold.

🛢️ Inflation and yield channel: Escalation raises oil and inflation expectations, potentially pushing yields higher and pressuring gold and silver.

That is why “war equals gold up” is not a reliable short-term formula.

What is stagflation, and why does it matter for gold and silver?

Stagflation is the difficult combination of weak or stagnant economic growth and persistently high inflation.

It creates a policy problem for the Federal Reserve:

• Cutting rates could worsen inflation.

• Keeping rates high could weaken employment and economic growth.

  
  

Stagflation may strengthen gold’s long-term monetary appeal. Silver’s reaction can be more complicated because economic weakness may reduce industrial-demand expectations.

Why does China matter for gold and silver?

China is one of the world’s largest consumers of gold and silver. Chinese physical demand, Shanghai prices and premiums, central-bank gold purchases, manufacturing activity and economic stimulus can all influence global precious-metals markets. China is particularly important for silver because of its major role in manufacturing, electronics, solar production and other silver-consuming industries.

Disclaimer: This website and my YouTube channel/social media are for entertainment and educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor, investment professional, or licensed expert. Everything I share is my personal opinion as just some dude on the internet with crabs. None of the content is financial, legal, tax, or investment advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always do your own research and consult a qualified professional before making any financial decisions. You are solely responsible for your own investment and financial choices. I am not liable for any losses or decisions you make based on this content.

Important Opinion: Never go into debt to buy gold or silver. Do not use leverage, margin, or loans to purchase precious metals.